Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for 05-20232024-24 Off-shore from 30 Jan 2024 18:00 UTC to 02 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for 05-20232024-24

Off-shore

02 Feb 2024 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone 05-20232024-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	162 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.8 m (31 Jan 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	162 km/h	1.8 m	563 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	162 km/h	1.8 m	563 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	30 Jan 2024 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	30 Jan 2024 12:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	31 Jan 2024 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	31 Jan 2024 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	01 Feb 2024 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	02 Feb 2024 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	02 Feb 2024 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

563 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar, Reunion	153,346	+
	Madagascar	153,329
	Reunion	16
100-250 mm	Madagascar, Reunion	1,160,600	+
	Madagascar	1,070,624
	Reunion	89,975
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion	1,666,277	+
	Indonesia	266
	Seychelles	3,233
	Madagascar	1,148,995
	Mauritius	11,303
	Reunion	502,479

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	30 Jan 2024 00:00	254	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	30 Jan 2024 12:00	207	-		-	-	-	-	-	Reunion
3	31 Jan 2024 00:00	235	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	31 Jan 2024 12:00	249	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	01 Feb 2024 00:00	138	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Feb 2024 12:00	229	-		-	-	-	-	-	Reunion
7	02 Feb 2024 00:00	452	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	02 Feb 2024 12:00	368	490 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.8m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 31 Jan 2024 14:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
1.0 - 2.0 m	Madagascar	17,051
0.5 - 1.0 m	Seychelles, Madagascar	37,641	+
	Seychelles	12,560
	Madagascar	25,081
0.25 - 0.5 m	Madagascar, Cocos Islands, Mauritius, Reunion	89,249	+
	Madagascar	65,320
	Cocos Islands	581
	Mauritius	13,405
	Reunion	9,942

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Voloina	Madagascar	1.8
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Manambia	Madagascar	1.8
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	1.8
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	1.8
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	1.8
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	1.7
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	1.7
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Benjana	Madagascar	1.7
	31 Jan 2024 14:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	1.5
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	1.5
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	1.4
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	1.3
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	1.3
	31 Jan 2024 14:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	1.1
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	1.1
	04 Feb 2024 05:15	Port Couvreux	French Southern and Antarctic Lands	1.0
	31 Jan 2024 14:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	1.0
	31 Jan 2024 14:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	1.0
	30 Jan 2024 07:30	Port Douzieme	French Southern and Antarctic Lands	0.9
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.9
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.9
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.9
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.9
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.9
	01 Feb 2024 18:45	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.9
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.7
	30 Jan 2024 03:45	Port-aux-Francais	French Southern and Antarctic Lands	0.7
	30 Jan 2024 02:15	Port Jeanne d'Arc	French Southern and Antarctic Lands	0.7
	01 Feb 2024 18:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 17:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 17:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 17:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 17:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 18:45	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.6
	02 Feb 2024 20:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.6
	02 Feb 2024 20:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 17:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.6
	02 Feb 2024 19:45	Victoria	Seychelles	0.6
	02 Feb 2024 19:45	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.6
	01 Feb 2024 06:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 06:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 06:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 06:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 06:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 18:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 18:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 18:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Lokia	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 16:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 16:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 16:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Tampina	Madagascar	0.5
	04 Feb 2024 07:15	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.5
	04 Feb 2024 07:15	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.5
	04 Feb 2024 07:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.5
	04 Feb 2024 07:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.5
	04 Feb 2024 07:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.5
	04 Feb 2024 07:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.5
	04 Feb 2024 07:15	Ampondrahazo	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 17:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.5
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Feb 2024 18:30	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.4
	04 Feb 2024 07:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.4
	04 Feb 2024 07:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.4
	04 Feb 2024 07:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.4
	04 Feb 2024 07:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:30	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:30	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Feb 2024 06:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Feb 2024 06:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:45	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:45	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.4
	04 Feb 2024 07:30	Irodo	Madagascar	0.4
	04 Feb 2024 07:30	Ampondrabe	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 18:15	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 18:15	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 19:00	Ambaritsatrana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:15	Vohitsara	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Ambatoharanana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:15	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:15	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 18:00	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 18:00	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 18:00	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 18:00	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2024 07:00	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:30	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 16:45	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.4
	04 Feb 2024 07:30	Ambolobozokely	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2024 07:15	Andrafiamadinika	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Sambava	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Ambanjsondriry	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Masondrono	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Ampondra	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Antsahotompy	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Lotsohina	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Antanambao	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Vohemar	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Feb 2024 12:30	West Island	Cocos (Keeling) Islands	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Saint-Antoine	Mauritius	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Riviere du Rempart	Mauritius	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Grande Reviere Sud Est	Mauritius	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Le Port	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	La Possession	Reunion	0.3
	04 Feb 2024 21:00	La Roche Godon	French Southern and Antarctic Lands	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 16:45	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 16:45	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 16:45	Cascades	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Trou aux Biches	Mauritius	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.3
	01 Feb 2024 07:15	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.3
	01 Feb 2024 07:15	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.3
	01 Feb 2024 06:45	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.3
	01 Feb 2024 06:45	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Port Louis	Mauritius	0.3
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Black River	Mauritius	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Choisy	Mauritius	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:45	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:15	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 16:45	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:30	Souillac	Mauritius	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:00	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:00	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.2
	02 Feb 2024 17:00	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.2
	04 Feb 2024 04:00	Point Marianne	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.2
	04 Feb 2024 04:00	East Point Plantation	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.2

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.