Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
13 Feb 2020 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Mauritius,
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 74 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (15 Feb 08:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 93 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 74 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      93 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 83 No people No people
        Green 2 05 Feb 2020 06:00 83 No people No people
        Green 3 05 Feb 2020 18:00 74 No people No people
        Green 4 06 Feb 2020 06:00 65 No people No people
        Green 5 13 Feb 2020 18:00 93 2.4 million No people Madagascar, Mauritius

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.8, 66.4
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -17, 68.2
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -17.6, 70.3
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -19.1, 71.7
          GREEN
          		 5 13 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 660000 people -18.3, 49.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 14 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 880000 people -19, 49.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 14 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.2 million people -19.5, 48.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 15 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.6 million people -19.6, 48.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 15 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -19.7, 47.7 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar
          Mauritius

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Mauritius Mauritius

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Rodrigues Plaine Corail RRG 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3300

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Port Mathurin Mauritius

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 15 Feb 2020 08:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (129 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 13 Feb 2020 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.4
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.4
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.4
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.4
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.3
          14 Feb 2020 15:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
          14 Feb 2020 15:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.3
          14 Feb 2020 13:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
          14 Feb 2020 17:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
          14 Feb 2020 16:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          14 Feb 2020 12:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
          14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
          13 Feb 2020 22:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 09:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 09:00 Baly Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.2
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
          14 Feb 2020 10:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 08:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 00:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 09:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
          13 Feb 2020 22:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 01:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 04:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 06:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 09:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 22:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 03:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
          13 Feb 2020 21:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
          13 Feb 2020 23:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 03:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
          14 Feb 2020 05:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 07:00 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
          15 Feb 2020 08:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.1