Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NARDA-19
in Mexico
29 Sep 2019 12 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NARDA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
    Maximum storm surge n.a.
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 74 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
    Overall 83 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      74 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 8.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 28 Sep 2019 12:00 74 2.1 million No people Mexico
        Green 2 28 Sep 2019 18:00 74 10.2 million No people Mexico
        Green 3 29 Sep 2019 00:00 74 4.8 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 29 Sep 2019 06:00 83 6.1 million No people Mexico
        Green 5 29 Sep 2019 12:00 74 8.2 million No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 28 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.5, -100
          GREEN
          		 2 28 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.5 million people 14.6, -99.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 3 29 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2 million people 15.1, -100.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 4 29 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.7 million people 15.7, -100.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 5.5 million people 17.4, -101.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 30 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 19.3, -103.6 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 30 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 21.5, -105.6 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 280000 people 23.2, -107.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2 million people 24.5, -108.6 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 02 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.2 million people 26.5, -109.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 28, -110.5 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Guerrero Mexico
          Michoacan Mexico
          Mexico Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico
          Colima Mexico
          Sinaloa Mexico
          Sonora Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people
          Atoyac Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Coyuca de Catalán Guerrero Mexico City -
          Huetamo Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 22000 people
          Acapulco Guerrero Mexico Major city 640000 people
          Ario de Rosales Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City -
          Tacambaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 21000 people
          Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
          Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
          Uruapan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 240000 people
          San Marcos Guerrero Mexico City 12000 people
          Cotija Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 14000 people
          Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 13000 people
          Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people
          Armería Colima Mexico City 16000 people
          Colima Colima Mexico Major city 130000 people
          Tamazula de Gordiano Jalisco Mexico City -
          Jiquilpan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 26000 people
          Sauhayo Michoacan de Ocampo Mexico City -
          Ciudad Guzmán Jalisco Mexico City -
          Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 110000 people
          Sayula Jalisco Mexico City 25000 people
          Atoyac Jalisco Mexico City 5300 people
          Chapala Jalisco Mexico City 20000 people
          Zacoalco de Torres Jalisco Mexico City -
          Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 40000 people
          Cocula Jalisco Mexico City 14000 people
          Guamúchil Sinaloa Mexico City 57000 people
          Guasave Sinaloa Mexico City 68000 people
          Los Mochis Sinaloa Mexico City 210000 people
          Ahome Sonora Mexico City 11000 people
          El Fuerte Sinaloa Mexico City 11000 people
          Huatabampo Sonora Mexico City 30000 people
          Navojoa Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
          Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City -
          Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people
          Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people
          Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
          Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
          El Infiernillo 511 0
          Santa Barbara 299 0
          Huetamo 300 0
          Pie de la Cuesta 6 0
          Alvarez International ACA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
          Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0
          Uruapan UPN 1593 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Coahuayana 61 0
          Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          Tuxpan 1225 Mil. Paved No 6700
          Venustiano Carranza 1554 0
          Ciudad Guzman 1520 0
          Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Autlan 884 0
          Campo Gobierno 13 0
          Guamuchil 24 0
          Campo Cuatro Milpas 28 0
          Los Cerritos Northeast 17 0
          Los Mochis LMM 4 Civ. Paved Yes 6500
          El Fuerte 75 0
          Navojoa New 38 0
          Navojoa 60 0
          Villa Juarez South 46 0
          Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico
          Acapulco MXACA Mexico
          Puerto Marques Mexico
          Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico
          Altata Mexico
          Topolobampo MXTPB Mexico
          Yavaros Mexico
          Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
          Empalme Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
          Andres Figueroa Ajuchitlan 1983
          El Gallo Cutzamala 1985
          Vicente Guerrero Poliutla 1968
          Carlos Ramirez Ulloa Balsas 1986
          Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957
          Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
          Trojes Coahuayana 1994
          Basilio Vadillo Basilio Vadillo San Migue 1973
          Trigomil Ayuquila 1993
          Tacotan Amuquila 1958
          Eustaquio Mocorito 1972
          Presa Josefa Ortiz de Dominguez Alamos 1967
          Mocuzari Adolfo Ruiz Cortines Rio Mayo 1955
          Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952
          Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.