Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 148 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

148 km/h Current

Up to 73000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.8, -44.6
GREEN
11 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15, -47.4
GREEN
11 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15, -50.3
GREEN
11 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15, -53
GREEN
11 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 880000 people 73000 people 15.3, -58 Dominica
GREEN
11 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.5, -64
GREEN
11 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.6, -69.2
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Dominica

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Dominica Dominica 70000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 2011 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 2001 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 2011 km
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 2011 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 2011 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 2019 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Castle Bruce, Dominica. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 10 Sep 2018 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 19:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Marigot Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 20:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 21:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 Roseau Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 21:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 21:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1