Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOYCE-18 in Australia from 09 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC to 12 Jan 2018 00:00 UTC

12 Jan 2018 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JOYCE-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (11 Jan 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 52000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	09 Jan 2018 18:00	93	30 thousand	No people	Australia
2	10 Jan 2018 00:00	93	30 thousand	No people	Australia
3	10 Jan 2018 06:00	102	40 thousand	No people	Australia
4	10 Jan 2018 12:00	102	50 thousand	No people	Australia
5	10 Jan 2018 18:00	139	60 thousand	1 thousand	Australia
6	11 Jan 2018 00:00	139	50 thousand	1 thousand	Australia
7	11 Jan 2018 06:00	111	100 thousand	No people	Australia
8	11 Jan 2018 12:00	102	60 thousand	No people	Australia
9	11 Jan 2018 18:00	102	50 thousand	No people	Australia
10	12 Jan 2018 00:00	83	50 thousand	No people	Australia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	09 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	22000 people	-17.6, 123.3	Australia
2	10 Jan 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	20000 people	-17, 123.1	Australia
3	10 Jan 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	14000 people	-16.1, 122.7	Australia
4	10 Jan 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	19000 people	-16.1, 122.5	Australia
5	10 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	21000 people	-16.7, 122.1	Australia
6	11 Jan 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	20000 people	-16.9, 121.6	Australia
7	11 Jan 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	16000 people	-17.3, 121.6	Australia
8	11 Jan 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	17000 people	-18, 121.5	Australia
9	11 Jan 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	17000 people	-18.7, 121.6	Australia
10	12 Jan 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	34000 people	-19.5, 121	Australia
10	12 Jan 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	30000 people	-20.8, 120	Australia
10	13 Jan 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	12000 people	-22.5, 118.6	Australia
10	13 Jan 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-24.6, 117	Australia

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Australia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Western Australia	Australia

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mount Goldsworthy	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Broome	Western Australia	Australia	City	13000 people
Port Hedland	Western Australia	Australia	City	14000 people
South Hedland	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Wedgefield	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Derby	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Wittenoom Gorge	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Newman	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Tom Price	Western Australia	Australia	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mandora	MQA	unknown				0
Wallal	WLA	unknown				0
Shay Gap	SGP	unknown				0
Mt. Goldsworthy	GLY	unknown				0
Muccan	MUQ	unknown				0
Pardoo	PRD	unknown				0
Warrawagine	WRW	unknown				0
Broome	BME	17	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7800
Woodie Woodie	WWI	unknown				0
Marble Bar	MBB	unknown				0
Nifty	NIF	295				0
Nullagine	NLL	unknown				0
Port Hedland	PHE	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Telfer	TEF	295	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Shaw River	SWB	unknown				0
Roy Hill	RHL	unknown				0
Carroll		91	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10000
Derby	DRB	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5600
Wittenoom Gorge	WIT	unknown				0
Coolawanyah	COY	unknown				0
Newman	ZNE	525	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6700
Tom Price	TPR	unknown				0
Paraburdoo	PBO	429	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Lagrange		Coral Sea Islands
Broome	AUBME	Coral Sea Islands
Port Hedland	AUPHE	Coral Sea Islands
Beagle Bay		Coral Sea Islands
Derby	AUDRB	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Leveque		Coral Sea Islands
Yampi Sound		Coral Sea Islands
Yampi	AUYAM	Coral Sea Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Thangoo, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 12 Jan 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Jan 2018 18:00	Thangoo	Australia	1.0
	11 Jan 2018 02:00	Derby	Australia	0.9
	11 Jan 2018 18:00	Broome	Australia	0.7
	11 Jan 2018 18:00	Waterbank	Australia	0.6
	11 Jan 2018 17:00	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.6
	10 Jan 2018 22:00	Pender	Australia	0.5
	11 Jan 2018 01:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.4
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.2
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Nightcliff	Australia	0.2
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.2
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Parap	Australia	0.2
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Darwin	Australia	0.2
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Ludmilla	Australia	0.2
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Bagot	Australia	0.2
	11 Jan 2018 05:00	Leanyer	Australia	0.2
	12 Jan 2018 15:00	Condon	Australia	0.2