Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
04 Jan 2018 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (06 Jan 00:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 130 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      130 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar
        Red 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 130 18.2 million 1.8 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.2 million people -17.3, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 9.8 million people -17.7, 51.5 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 6 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 760000 people 12.8 million people -18.2, 50.4 Madagascar
          RED
          		 6 05 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 1.1 million people 15.1 million people -18.6, 49.5 Madagascar
          RED
          		 6 06 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 1.1 million people 15.8 million people -19.5, 49 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 6 07 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 120000 people 11.2 million people -22.1, 49.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 40000 people 5.2 million people -24.3, 48.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 09 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -26.2, 47.3
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Toliara Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
          Manakara Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 35000 people
          Tolanaro Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Manakara Sud WVK 10 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Tolagnaro FTU 8 Civ. Paved No 5900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          Manakara MGWVK Madagascar
          Ste Luce Madagascar
          Tolanaro MGFTU Madagascar
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Marosiky, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Jan 2018 00:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (175 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 04 Jan 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.4
          07 Jan 2018 22:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.4
          07 Jan 2018 20:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.4
          07 Jan 2018 20:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 23:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Esama Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 22:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 14:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 10:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 08:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 14:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 14:00 Vodivola Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 16:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 18:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Amberio Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 08:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanandava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasimpolaka Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 12:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Maroloha Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Belay Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Analapetsa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 00:00 Elanja Madagascar  0.1