Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
03 Jan 2018 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (05 Jan 10:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 970000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.6 million people -17.2, 52.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 340000 people 4.2 million people -17.6, 51.2 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 5 05 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 730000 people 9.8 million people -18, 50.2 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 5 05 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 670000 people 15.3 million people -18.9, 49.4 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 5 06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 14.3 million people -21.8, 49.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 07 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 3.1 million people -24.7, 49.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -27.4, 48.1
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 10:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (141 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 03 Jan 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 12:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 12:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Esama Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 19:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 16:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 03:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 12:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 20:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 18:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1