Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
03 Jan 2018 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (04 Jan 22:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 111 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      111 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 13.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 2900 people -15.9, 52.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 3 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 1.7 million people -16.5, 51.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 3 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 4.3 million people -17, 50.8 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 3 05 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 10.9 million people -17.7, 50 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 3 06 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 11.2 million people -19.7, 48.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 3 07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.9 million people -22.5, 48 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 3 08 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -25.1, 48 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Antsiranana Madagascar
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Toliara Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people
          Antananarivo Antananarivo Madagascar Capital 1.4 million people
          Antsirabe Antananarivo Madagascar City 150000 people
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
          Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
          Sahasinaka Fianarantsoa Madagascar City -
          Manakara Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 35000 people
          Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people
          Farafangana Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 25000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Andriamena WAD unknown 0
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Antananarivo Ivato TNR 1279 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          Antananarivo Arivonimamo 1450 0
          Antsirabe ATJ 1523 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Manakara Sud WVK 10 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Ambalavao 972 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
          Farafangana RVA 8 Civ. Unpaved No 3400

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
          Saint Mary Island Madagascar
          Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          Manakara MGWVK Madagascar
          Farafangana MGRVA Madagascar
          Manantenina Madagascar
          Ste Luce Madagascar

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958
          Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958
          Mantasoa Varahina-Nord 1938
          Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Jan 2018 22:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (141 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 03 Jan 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 23:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Savana Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 04:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 20:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 09:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 10:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 11:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 11:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 11:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 18:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 16:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 05:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 16:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 13:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 13:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 14:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 12:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 16:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 15:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1