Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
03 Jan 2018 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (04 Jan 22:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 111 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      111 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 11.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 34000 people -15.8, 52.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 2 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1.7 million people -16.4, 51.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 2 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 4.8 million people -16.9, 51.1 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 2 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 11.3 million people -17.6, 49.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 2 06 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -19.2, 48.3 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Antsiranana Madagascar
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
          Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people
          Antananarivo Antananarivo Madagascar Capital 1.4 million people
          Saka Antananarivo Madagascar City -
          Antsirabe Antananarivo Madagascar City 150000 people
          Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
          Andriamena WAD unknown 0
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Antananarivo Ivato TNR 1279 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          Antananarivo Arivonimamo 1450 0
          Antsirabe ATJ 1523 Civ. Unpaved No 4900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Antataha MGANM Madagascar
          Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
          Saint Mary Island Madagascar
          Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958
          Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958
          Mantasoa Varahina-Nord 1938
          Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Vohilava, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Jan 2018 22:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (105 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 03 Jan 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 20:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 03:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.3
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 09:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 05:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 08:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 21:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 08:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 09:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 16:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 09:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 08:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 01:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 08:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 19:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 08:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 04:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 08:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 18:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 21:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 05:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 06:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 04:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 07:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 00:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 16:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1