Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AVA-18
in Madagascar
05 Jan 2018 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone AVA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2018-000001-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (05 Jan 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 167 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 176 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      167 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Red 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.2 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 111 11.4 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 111 13.8 million No people Madagascar
        Orange 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 120 13.4 million 360 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 120 16.4 million 970 thousand Madagascar
        Red 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 130 18.2 million 1.8 million Madagascar
        Orange 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 130 16.5 million 6 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 130 17.2 million 1.1 million Madagascar
        Orange 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 130 17.6 million 470 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 167 18.3 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Orange 11 05 Jan 2018 06:00 176 17.7 million 1.3 million Madagascar
        Red 12 05 Jan 2018 12:00 167 18.3 million 2.4 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 02 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.2, 52.6
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -15.4, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16, 53.1
          GREEN
          		 5 03 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 16000 people -16.6, 53.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.2 million people -17.3, 52.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.7 million people -17.8, 52.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 3.6 million people -17.4, 51.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 9 04 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 4.3 million people -17.3, 51 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 10 05 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 200000 people 10 million people -17.2, 50.5 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 11 05 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 650000 people 12 million people -17.9, 50 Madagascar
          RED
          		 12 05 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 1.3 million people 14.7 million people -18.2, 49.4 Madagascar
          RED
          		 12 06 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 130 1.3 million people 15.6 million people -19, 48.8 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 12 06 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 900000 people 14.5 million people -20.4, 48.5 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 12 07 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 140000 people 12.6 million people -21.9, 48.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 12 07 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 6.6 million people -23.5, 48.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 12 08 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 3.3 million people -25.5, 48.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 12 09 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 430000 people -27.2, 47.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 12 10 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -28.9, 49.1
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
          Manakara Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 35000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Manakara Sud WVK 10 Civ. Paved No 3900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          Manakara MGWVK Madagascar
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.9 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Tamatave, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2018 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (210 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 05 Jan 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.9
          05 Jan 2018 12:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.8
          05 Jan 2018 13:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.8
          05 Jan 2018 14:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.7
          05 Jan 2018 15:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.6
          05 Jan 2018 17:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 18:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.5
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.5
          06 Jan 2018 15:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 17:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 16:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 10:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 19:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 14:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.4
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.4
          06 Jan 2018 08:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 11:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 20:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 22:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Savana Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 17:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 17:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 10:00 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 06:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 19:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 22:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 04:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.3
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 23:00 Esama Madagascar  0.3
          07 Jan 2018 23:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.3
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.3
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Taratasy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 08:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 21:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 21:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 11:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 03:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 05:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 22:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 03:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.2
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Amberio Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 07:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Vodivola Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Jan 2018 07:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.2
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 06:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
          07 Jan 2018 10:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.2
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 23:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 09:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 08:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 11:00 Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 01:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 23:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 04:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 20:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 16:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 00:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
          04 Jan 2018 22:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
          05 Jan 2018 02:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 03:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 00:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 11:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 02:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 00:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
          02 Jan 2018 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          03 Jan 2018 02:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Jan 2018 02:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
          06 Jan 2018 01:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Antanandava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 11:00 Maroloha Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 11:00 Belay Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Ampasimpolaka Madagascar  0.1
          08 Jan 2018 12:00 Elanja Madagascar  0.1