Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for SANDRA-15 in Mexico from 23 Nov 2015 21:00 UTC to 28 Nov 2015 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SANDRA-15

in Mexico

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SANDRA-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (28 Nov 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 97000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	23 Nov 2015 21:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
2	24 Nov 2015 03:00	148	No people	No people	Mexico
3	24 Nov 2015 09:00	148	No people	No people	Mexico
4	24 Nov 2015 15:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
5	24 Nov 2015 21:00	120	No people	280 thousand	Mexico
6	25 Nov 2015 03:00	185	No people	No people	Mexico
7	25 Nov 2015 09:00	194	No people	No people	Mexico
8	25 Nov 2015 15:00	194	No people	No people	Mexico
9	25 Nov 2015 21:00	204	No people	No people	Mexico
10	26 Nov 2015 03:00	204	No people	No people	Mexico
11	26 Nov 2015 09:00	231	No people	No people	Mexico
12	26 Nov 2015 15:00	213	No people	No people	Mexico
13	26 Nov 2015 21:00	194	No people	No people	Mexico
14	27 Nov 2015 03:00	194	No people	No people	Mexico
15	27 Nov 2015 09:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
16	27 Nov 2015 15:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
17	27 Nov 2015 21:00	130	No people	No people	Mexico
18	28 Nov 2015 03:00	102	No people	No people	Mexico
19	28 Nov 2015 09:00	65	No people	No people	Mexico
20	28 Nov 2015 12:00	56	No people	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	23 Nov 2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.8, -102.9
2	24 Nov 2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.9, -104.6
3	24 Nov 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.8, -105
4	24 Nov 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.2, -106.1
5	24 Nov 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	11.9, -107.2
6	25 Nov 2015 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	12, -107.9
7	25 Nov 2015 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	12.5, -109
8	25 Nov 2015 15:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	12.6, -109.5
9	25 Nov 2015 21:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	13, -109.9
10	26 Nov 2015 03:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	13.6, -110.4
11	26 Nov 2015 09:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	14.6, -110.3
12	26 Nov 2015 15:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	15.7, -110.1
13	26 Nov 2015 21:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	16.8, -110.1	Mexico
14	27 Nov 2015 03:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	18, -109.7	Mexico
15	27 Nov 2015 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	18.9, -109.3	Mexico
16	27 Nov 2015 15:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	19.6, -108.4	Mexico
17	27 Nov 2015 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	20.4, -108.4	Mexico
18	28 Nov 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	97000 people	21.2, -108.8	Mexico
19	28 Nov 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	120000 people	21.4, -109.2	Mexico
20	28 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.7, -109
20	29 Nov 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	23.3, -108.5	Mexico
20	29 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	24.3, -107.9	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Baja California Sur
Mexico	Nayarit

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in La Puerta, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Nov 2015 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 28 Nov 2015 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Nov 2015 12:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	28 Nov 2015 12:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	29 Nov 2015 02:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Nov 2015 04:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Nov 2015 02:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	28 Nov 2015 11:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	28 Nov 2015 11:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Nov 2015 12:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Nov 2015 12:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	28 Nov 2015 11:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Nov 2015 02:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.