Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for ODILE-14 in Mexico from 10 Sep 2014 15:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2014 15:00 UTC

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Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ODILE-14 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	430 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (15 Sep 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	64 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	241 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

64 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Sep 2014 09:00	148	No people	No people	Mexico
2	10 Sep 2014 15:00	158	No people	120 thousand	Mexico
3	10 Sep 2014 21:00	167	No people	Few people	Mexico
4	11 Sep 2014 03:00	175	No people	No people	Mexico
5	11 Sep 2014 09:00	175	---	No people	Mexico
6	11 Sep 2014 15:00	185	No people	No people	Mexico
7	11 Sep 2014 21:00	185	No people	No people	Mexico
8	12 Sep 2014 03:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
9	12 Sep 2014 09:00	158	No people	No people	Mexico
10	12 Sep 2014 15:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
11	12 Sep 2014 21:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
12	13 Sep 2014 03:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
13	13 Sep 2014 09:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
14	13 Sep 2014 15:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
15	13 Sep 2014 21:00	185	No people	No people	Mexico
16	14 Sep 2014 03:00	204	No people	60 thousand	Mexico
17	14 Sep 2014 09:00	241	No people	70 thousand	Mexico
18	14 Sep 2014 15:00	222	No people	40 thousand	Mexico
19	14 Sep 2014 21:00	204	No people	160 thousand	Mexico
20	15 Sep 2014 03:00	204	No people	440 thousand	Mexico
21	15 Sep 2014 09:00	185	No people	440 thousand	Mexico
22	15 Sep 2014 15:00	158	No people	420 thousand	Mexico
23	15 Sep 2014 21:00	130	No people	410 thousand	Mexico
24	16 Sep 2014 03:00	111	No people	430 thousand	Mexico
25	16 Sep 2014 09:00	101	No people	430 thousand	Mexico
26	16 Sep 2014 15:00	93	No people	430 thousand	Mexico, United States
27	16 Sep 2014 21:00	84	No people	430 thousand	Mexico, United States
28	17 Sep 2014 03:00	84	No people	430 thousand	Mexico, United States
29	17 Sep 2014 09:00	84	No people	430 thousand	Mexico, United States
30	17 Sep 2014 15:00	64	No people	430 thousand	Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	9/10/2014 9:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.4, -102.5
2	9/10/2014 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	14.9, -102.9
3	9/10/2014 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	15.3, -103.2
4	9/11/2014 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -103.5
5	9/11/2014 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	15.5, -104
6	9/11/2014 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	15.3, -104.2
7	9/11/2014 9:00:00 PM9/12/2014 6:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.1, -104.7
8	9/12/2014 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.5, -104.7
9	9/12/2014 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.5, -104.9
10	9/12/2014 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	101	no people	no people	15.5, -105
11	9/12/2014 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	101	no people	28000 people	15.6, -104.8	Mexico
12	9/13/2014 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	101	no people	140000 people	16.2, -105.3	Mexico
13	9/13/2014 9:00:00 AM	Category 1	121	no people	120000 people	16.4, -105.6	Mexico
14	9/13/2014 3:00:00 PM	Category 1	130	no people	150000 people	16.6, -106	Mexico
15	9/13/2014 9:00:00 PM	Category 1	148	no people	280000 people	17, -106.2	Mexico
16	9/14/2014 3:00:00 AM	Category 2	175	no people	530000 people	17.9, -106.5	Mexico
17	9/14/2014 9:00:00 AM	Category 4	212	no people	320000 people	19.1, -107.3	Mexico
18	9/14/2014 3:00:00 PM	Category 4	212	no people	120000 people	20, -108.2	Mexico
19	9/14/2014 9:00:00 PM	Category 3	204	110000 people	340000 people	21.1, -108.9	Mexico
20	9/15/2014 3:00:00 AM	Category 3	204	330000 people	900000 people	22.6, -109.6	Mexico
21	9/15/2014 9:00:00 AM	Category 3	185	280000 people	1.5 million people	23.7, -110.4	Mexico
22	9/15/2014 3:00:00 PM	Category 2	158	77000 people	1.6 million people	24.7, -111.3	Mexico
23	9/15/2014 9:00:00 PM	Category 1	130	85000 people	1.1 million people	25.5, -111.8	Mexico
24	9/16/2014 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	111	no people	620000 people	26.6, -112.1	Mexico
25	9/16/2014 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	101	no people	300000 people	27.4, -112.7	Mexico
26	9/16/2014 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	93	no people	160000 people	28.4, -113.2	Mexico
27	9/16/2014 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	240000 people	29.1, -113.5	Mexico
28	9/17/2014 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	84	no people	250000 people	29.7, -113.6	Mexico, United States
29	9/17/2014 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	84	no people	240000 people	30.1, -113.5	Mexico, United States
30	9/17/2014 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	1.5 million people	30.6, -113.3	Mexico, United States
30	9/18/2014	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	31.5, -112.4	United States, Mexico
30	9/18/2014 12:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	32.7, -111.3	United States

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Baja California
United States	Arizona
Mexico	Baja California Sur
Mexico	Sinaloa
Mexico	Sonora
Mexico	Colima
Mexico	Jalisco
Mexico	Michoacan
Mexico	Nayarit

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people
Tucson	Arizona	United States	Major city	490000 people
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people
Isla Natividad	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
Empalme	Sonora	Mexico	City	38000 people
Guaymas	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
Yaqui	Sonora	Mexico	City	14000 people
San Juanico	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
Villa Constitución	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
Los Mochis	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	210000 people
Guasave	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	68000 people
Ciudad Obregón	Sonora	Mexico	City	-
Huatabampo	Sonora	Mexico	City	30000 people
Ahome	Sonora	Mexico	City	11000 people
Nogales	Sonora	Mexico	City	21000 people
Magdalena	Sonora	Mexico	City	-
Santa Ana	Sonora	Mexico	City	10000 people
Casas Adobes	Arizona	United States	City	54000 people
Catalina Foothills	Arizona	United States	City	54000 people
Drexel Heights	Arizona	United States	City	24000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Adolfo Lopez Mateos, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Sep 2014 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (114 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 30 of 17 Sep 2014 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 Sep 2014 21:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.8
	15 Sep 2014 08:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.6
	15 Sep 2014 07:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2014 18:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2014 21:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.5
	17 Sep 2014 15:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2014 12:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2014 17:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 10:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 11:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 11:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2014 15:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 12:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 10:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2014 00:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2014 13:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2014 00:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 13:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 18:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 21:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 22:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 10:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 19:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.3
	17 Sep 2014 05:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.3
	17 Sep 2014 04:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2014 19:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 21:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2014 15:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2014 21:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 03:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 05:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2014 02:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 15:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 22:00	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 23:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 03:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 02:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 03:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2014 04:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 17:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 20:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 21:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2014 09:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 04:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 17:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 07:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 16:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 20:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 14:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 17:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 16:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 09:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 08:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 08:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 08:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 20:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 19:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2014 05:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2014 08:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2014 04:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 11:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 20:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 17:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 15:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 04:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 03:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 07:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2014 11:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2014 06:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 23:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 05:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 03:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 14:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 03:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 02:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 20:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 01:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2014 03:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2014 10:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2014 10:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 05:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 04:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 03:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 14:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 02:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 12:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 12:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 04:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2014 03:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 12:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 14:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 03:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 06:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2014 05:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2014 00:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2014 02:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1