Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for PHAILIN-13
in India

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PHAILIN-13 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JRC)
Exposed countries India
Exposed population 5.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 269 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (12 Oct 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge GDACS score
GDACS Current 241 km/h 1.1 m 2.5
GDACS Overall 269 km/h 1.1 m 2.5

Wind

241 km/h Current

Up to 4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Red 3 09 Oct 2013 12:00 138 No people 4.9 million India
Red 4 09 Oct 2013 18:00 148 No people 2 million India
Red 5 10 Oct 2013 00:00 158 No people 4 million India
Red 6 10 Oct 2013 06:00 175 No people 5.8 million India
Red 7 10 Oct 2013 12:00 249 No people 8 million India
Red 8 10 Oct 2013 18:00 249 No people 7.7 million India
Red 9 11 Oct 2013 00:00 269 No people 6.2 million India
Red 10 11 Oct 2013 06:00 259 No people 7.7 million India
Red 11 11 Oct 2013 12:00 269 No people 9.6 million India
Red 12 11 Oct 2013 18:00 269 No people 6.6 million India
Red 13 12 Oct 2013 00:00 269 No people 8.5 million India
Red 14 12 Oct 2013 06:00 241 No people 4.1 million India

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
green
1 10/8/2013 Tropical storm 64 84000 people no people 13.2, 93.4
green
2 10/9/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 74 84000 people no people 13.4, 92.8
green
3 10/9/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 23000 people no people 13.7, 92.2
green
4 10/9/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.1, 91.6
green
5 10/10/2013 Tropical storm 101 no people no people 14.4, 91.3
green
6 10/10/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 1 121 no people no people 14.9, 91
green
7 10/10/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 3 185 no people no people 15.4, 90.3
green
8 10/10/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 4 232 no people no people 15.6, 89.4
green
9 10/11/2013 Category 4 249 no people no people 15.8, 88.8
green
10 10/11/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 4 249 no people no people 16.1, 88.4
green
11 10/11/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 5 259 no people no people 16.7, 87.7
green
12 10/11/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 5 259 3 million people no people 16.9, 87.1
green
13 10/12/2013 Category 5 259 5.5 million people no people 17.4, 86.5
red
14 10/12/2013 6:00:00 AM Category 4 241 15.6 million people 2.5 million people 18, 85.8
red
14 10/12/2013 6:00:00 PM Category 2 175 19.1 million people 3.3 million people 19.4, 84.5
orange
14 10/13/2013 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 111 10.6 million people no people 20.9, 83.5
green
14 10/13/2013 6:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 22.6, 82.6
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Provinces

Country Region Province Population
India Andhra Pradesh 70.2 million people
India Orissa 33.3 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Chatrapur Orissa India City 21000 people
Berhampur Orissa India City -
Ichchapuram Andhra Pradesh India City 33000 people
Mandasa Andhra Pradesh India City 9200 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Baruva India
Gopalpore India

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Gopalpur, India. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2013 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (87 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 12 Oct 2013 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Gopalpur India  1.1
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Chatrapur India  0.9
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Canjam India  0.8
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Paluru India  0.7
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Malud India  0.5
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Nuralrevu India  0.4
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Panasapada India  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Hngetkyidaung Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Suppanu Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 02:00 Pyapon Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 02:00 Apaung Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Chaunggyi Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.3
09 Oct 2013 23:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.3
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.3
09 Oct 2013 23:00 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.2
09 Oct 2013 23:00 Budin Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
09 Oct 2013 23:00 Ase Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
12 Oct 2013 06:00 Bideipur India  0.2
12 Oct 2013 08:00 Rasalpur India  0.2
12 Oct 2013 06:00 Chandipur India  0.2
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Puri India  0.2
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Alandaing Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Hseikma Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Khindan Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Munaing Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Tagukana Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Darein Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.2
12 Oct 2013 12:00 Baruva India  0.2
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Balighai India  0.2
09 Oct 2013 23:00 Aunghlaing Myanmar  0.2
09 Oct 2013 22:00 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.2
12 Oct 2013 09:00 Nuliasahi India  0.2
09 Oct 2013 23:00 Ama Myanmar  0.2
09 Oct 2013 22:00 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.2
12 Oct 2013 07:00 Hukitala India  0.2
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Ledaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Wagon Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Kongyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.2
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Wagaru Myanmar  0.2
12 Oct 2013 07:00 Nuagan India  0.2
12 Oct 2013 16:00 Konarak India  0.2
10 Oct 2013 05:00 Zigyaing Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 05:00 Kywegyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 05:00 Kangyaing Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 07:00 Chaungtaungbe Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 07:00 Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 07:00 Payahla Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Magyibin Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 05:00 Okkan Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 07:00 Ywadegon Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 04:00 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 05:00 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 05:00 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Wegalaung Myanmar  0.1
12 Oct 2013 11:00 Bijavbati India  0.1
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Karokpi Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Anin Myanmar  0.1
12 Oct 2013 11:00 Ammalapadu India  0.1
12 Oct 2013 08:00 Satabhaya India  0.1
10 Oct 2013 00:00 Andin Myanmar  0.1
10 Oct 2013 01:00 Thinbawzeik Myanmar  0.1