Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for HIDAYA-24 in Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros from 01 May 2024 00:00 UTC to 04 May 2024 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HIDAYA-24

in Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros

04 May 2024 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HIDAYA-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros
Exposed population	640 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	148 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (04 May 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Comoros)
Landfall	between 04 May 2024 12:00 - 05 May 2024 00:00 in Tanzania

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	63 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	148 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

63 km/h Current Max.

Up to 12.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	01 May 2024 00:00	95	10.2 million	No people	Seychelles, Comoros, Mozambique, Tanzania
2	01 May 2024 06:00	106	8.9 million	No people	Seychelles, Comoros, Mozambique, Tanzania
3	01 May 2024 12:00	106	10.5 million	No people	Seychelles, Mozambique, Tanzania
4	01 May 2024 18:00	84	14.5 million	No people	Seychelles, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya
5	02 May 2024 00:00	106	10.6 million	No people	Seychelles, Comoros, Mozambique, Tanzania
6	02 May 2024 06:00	116	10.3 million	No people	Seychelles, Comoros, Tanzania
7	02 May 2024 12:00	116	10 million	No people	Seychelles, Comoros, Tanzania
8	02 May 2024 18:00	127	9.5 million	No people	Seychelles, Comoros, Tanzania
9	03 May 2024 00:00	137	10.3 million	No people	Seychelles, Comoros, Tanzania
10	03 May 2024 06:00	148	8.9 million	No people	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros
11	03 May 2024 12:00	137	9.8 million	No people	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros
12	03 May 2024 18:00	127	11.5 million	No people	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros
13	04 May 2024 00:00	127	11.8 million	610 thousand	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros
14	04 May 2024 06:00	106	11.9 million	9 thousand	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros
15	04 May 2024 12:00	63	12.7 million	No people	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	01 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	<1000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-8.4, 45.6
2	01 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	<1000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-8.8, 45.6
3	01 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	<1000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-8.8, 45.3
4	01 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-8.8, 45
5	02 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	120000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-9, 44.5
6	02 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-8.9, 44.2
7	02 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-8.8, 44.1
8	02 May 2024 18:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-8.9, 43.8
9	03 May 2024 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-8.7, 43.2
10	03 May 2024 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	61000 people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-8.4, 42.6
11	03 May 2024 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	7.9 million people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-8.2, 41.8
12	03 May 2024 18:00	Category 1	137	no people	9.7 million people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-8.1, 41.3
13	04 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	116	640000 people	11.1 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-7.8, 40.6
14	04 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	10.1 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-7.8, 40
15	04 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	12.5 million people	Tropical Depression	56	-7.5, 39.5
15	05 May 2024 00:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-6.3, 38.8	Tanzania

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Tanzania	12.3 million people
Comoros	110000 people
Seychelles	<1000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Pwani	Tanzania	2.1 million people
Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	6.3 million people
Lindi	Tanzania	190000 people
Morogoro	Tanzania	970000 people
Zanzibar Central/South	Tanzania	150000 people
Zanzibar Urban/West	Tanzania	860000 people
Zanzibar North	Tanzania	230000 people
Tanga	Tanzania	1.4 million people
Pemba South	Tanzania	48000 people
Comoros	Comoros	110000 people
Seychelles	Seychelles	<1000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Dar es Salaam	Dar-es-Salaam	Tanzania	Major city	2.7 million people
Zanzibar	Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West)	Tanzania	Major city	400000 people
Morogoro	Morogoro	Tanzania	City	250000 people
Tanga	Tanga	Tanzania	City	220000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mafia	MFA	18	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5200
Dar Es Salaam	DAR	55	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Zanzibar	ZNZ	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8000
Ngerengere		226				0
Morogoro		532	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Tanga	TGT	39	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4100
Moroni Hahaia	HAH	27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9500
Assumption Island		3	Civ.	Paved	No	3900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Kisiju		Tanzania
Kilondoni		Tanzania
Mjimwema Terminal		Tanzania
Dar-es-Salaam	TZDAR	Tanzania
Kilwa Kivinje	TZKIK	Tanzania
Kilwa Masoko	TZKIM	Tanzania
Zanzibar	TZZNZ	Tanzania
Pangani	TZPAN	Tanzania
Mkoani		Tanzania
Tanga	TZTGT	Tanzania
Assumption Island		Seychelles

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Kisiju, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 04 May 2024 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (64 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 04 May 2024 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 May 2024 11:00	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.5
	04 May 2024 10:00	Dondo	Tanzania	0.5
	04 May 2024 10:00	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.5
	04 May 2024 09:00	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.4
	04 May 2024 05:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.4
	04 May 2024 05:00	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.4
	04 May 2024 05:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.4
	04 May 2024 03:00	Mwera	Tanzania	0.4
	04 May 2024 11:00	Magawa	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 11:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 05:00	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 05:00	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 04:00	Mkarangama	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 04:00	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 04:00	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 04:00	Kipingwe	Tanzania	0.3
	04 May 2024 05:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.2
	04 May 2024 03:00	Chole	Tanzania	0.2
	04 May 2024 04:00	Kirongwe	Tanzania	0.2
	04 May 2024 05:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.2
	02 May 2024 10:00	Palma	Mozambique	0.2
	02 May 2024 10:00	Boala	Mozambique	0.2
	04 May 2024 06:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.2
	04 May 2024 16:00	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.2
	04 May 2024 16:00	Fumba	Tanzania	0.2
	04 May 2024 15:00	Kijini	Tanzania	0.2
	05 May 2024 06:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.2
	05 May 2024 06:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.2
	02 May 2024 08:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.2
	04 May 2024 15:00	Uzi	Tanzania	0.2
	05 May 2024 06:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.2
	04 May 2024 16:00	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 21:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 14:00	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 18:00	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 18:00	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 19:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 19:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	04 May 2024 20:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 12:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 12:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 18:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	04 May 2024 18:00	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 21:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 21:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 21:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 21:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 17:00	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	04 May 2024 02:00	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	04 May 2024 17:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 19:00	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	05 May 2024 04:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 19:00	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 May 2024 05:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	04 May 2024 17:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.