Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUALOI-19
in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
25 Oct 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BUALOI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 241 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 241 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2200 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 19 Oct 2019 00:00 167 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Orange 2 19 Oct 2019 06:00 130 50 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 3 19 Oct 2019 12:00 157 50 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 4 19 Oct 2019 18:00 194 60 thousand 4 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 5 20 Oct 2019 00:00 204 60 thousand 6 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 6 20 Oct 2019 06:00 213 60 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 7 20 Oct 2019 12:00 213 50 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 8 20 Oct 2019 18:00 213 50 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 9 21 Oct 2019 00:00 222 70 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 10 21 Oct 2019 06:00 231 50 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 11 21 Oct 2019 12:00 231 370 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
        Green 12 21 Oct 2019 18:00 222 90 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
        Green 13 22 Oct 2019 00:00 222 50 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 14 22 Oct 2019 06:00 231 90 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
        Green 15 22 Oct 2019 12:00 241 50 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 16 22 Oct 2019 18:00 231 50 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 17 23 Oct 2019 00:00 222 50 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 18 23 Oct 2019 06:00 185 90 thousand 3 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
        Green 19 23 Oct 2019 12:00 185 160 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
        Green 20 23 Oct 2019 18:00 185 50 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 21 24 Oct 2019 00:00 176 50 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 22 24 Oct 2019 06:00 176 50 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 23 24 Oct 2019 12:00 167 50 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 24 24 Oct 2019 18:00 148 50 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 25 25 Oct 2019 00:00 139 50 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Green 26 25 Oct 2019 06:00 120 50 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 19 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.3, 156.7
          GREEN
          		 2 19 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 10.8, 155.2
          GREEN
          		 3 19 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11, 153.7
          GREEN
          		 4 19 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 11.4, 152.4
          GREEN
          		 5 20 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.6, 151.3
          GREEN
          		 6 20 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 12.2, 150.4
          GREEN
          		 7 20 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 12.7, 149.8
          GREEN
          		 8 20 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 139 no people 8700 people 13.3, 149 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 9 21 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 2 157 no people 51000 people 14.1, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 10 21 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 2 176 no people 52000 people 14.7, 147.6 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 11 21 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 3 194 no people 51000 people 15.4, 146.8 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 12 21 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 4 213 no people 51000 people 16.3, 145.9 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 13 22 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 17.1, 145
          GREEN
          		 14 22 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 18.1, 144.4
          GREEN
          		 15 22 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 19.2, 143.5
          GREEN
          		 16 22 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 20.4, 143.1
          GREEN
          		 17 23 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 222 no people <1000 people 21.7, 142.2
          GREEN
          		 18 23 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 3 185 <1000 people 2700 people 22.8, 142
          GREEN
          		 19 23 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 3 185 2200 people 2800 people 24, 141.9
          GREEN
          		 20 23 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 2200 people 2800 people 25.3, 142
          GREEN
          		 21 24 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 2 176 2200 people 2300 people 26.9, 142.3
          GREEN
          		 22 24 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 2 176 no people 2200 people 28.2, 142.7
          GREEN
          		 23 24 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 1700 people 29.4, 143.5
          GREEN
          		 24 24 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 31.1, 144.6
          GREEN
          		 25 25 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 32, 146
          GREEN
          		 26 25 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 33.7, 148
          GREEN
          		 26 25 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 37, 149.9
          GREEN
          		 26 26 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 40.7, 151
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Muko Japan
          Omura Japan
          Haha Japan
          Minami Lo Japan
          Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Oki, Japan. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2019 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (62 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 26 of 25 Oct 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          23 Oct 2019 23:00 Oki Japan  0.4
          23 Oct 2019 23:00 Hyogidaira Japan  0.4
          24 Oct 2019 01:00 Omura Japan  0.4
          24 Oct 2019 01:00 Ogigaura Japan  0.4
          24 Oct 2019 01:00 Sakaiura Japan  0.4
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Fushiko-tobuto Japan  0.4
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Svetloye Japan  0.4
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Nishi-wada Japan  0.4
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Bekkai Japan  0.4
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Tokotan Japan  0.3
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Odaito Japan  0.3
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Nemuro Japan  0.3
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Tomoshiri Japan  0.3
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Nassafu Japan  0.3
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Hikiushi Japan  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Moshirikeshi Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Zeikomae Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Akiajiba Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Churuigenya Japan  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Kumbetsu Japan  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Rukushibetsu Japan  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Golovnino Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Ruchi Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Protochnaya Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Shibetsu Japan  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Sunahama Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Tokkariiso Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Pontokomoi Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Kafenotsu Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Aitomari Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Kamenka Russia  0.2
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Kitaura Russia  0.2
          23 Oct 2019 16:00 Higashi Japan  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Danilovo Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Chibukarabetsu Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Yuzhno-Kurilsk Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Alekhino Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Nishimae Russia  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 19:00 Kami-Shigeoka Japan  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 19:00 Ide Japan  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 19:00 Tomioka Japan  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 19:00 Futaba Japan  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 19:00 Oragahama Japan  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Nakanokotan Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Medelevo Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Goryachiy Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Oshiusu Russia  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 16:00 Choshi Japan  0.1
          23 Oct 2019 18:00 Ishinomura Japan  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Onirusu Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Gavrilovka Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Il'inka Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Nazarovo Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Grigor'yevo Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Kunashiri Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Tyatino Russia  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 06:00 Mysovoye Russia  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 19:00 Kiyohashi Japan  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 04:00 Mo-chirippu Japan  0.1
          26 Oct 2019 04:00 Kiritappu Japan  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 16:00 Yatabe Japan  0.1
          25 Oct 2019 16:00 Okunoya Japan  0.1