Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ERICK-19 Off-shore from 27 Jul 2019 15:00 UTC to 02 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ERICK-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher
1	27 Jul 2019 12:00	120	No people	No people
2	27 Jul 2019 18:00	120	No people	No people
3	28 Jul 2019 00:00	139	No people	No people
4	28 Jul 2019 06:00	157	No people	No people
5	28 Jul 2019 12:00	148	No people	No people
6	28 Jul 2019 18:00	157	No people	No people
7	29 Jul 2019 00:00	185	No people	No people
8	29 Jul 2019 06:00	185	No people	No people
9	29 Jul 2019 12:00	185	No people	No people
10	29 Jul 2019 18:00	185	No people	No people
11	30 Jul 2019 00:00	176	No people	No people
12	30 Jul 2019 06:00	176	No people	No people
13	30 Jul 2019 12:00	204	No people	No people
14	30 Jul 2019 18:00	231	No people	No people
15	31 Jul 2019 00:00	213	No people	No people
16	31 Jul 2019 06:00	204	No people	No people
17	31 Jul 2019 12:00	194	No people	No people
20	01 Aug 2019 06:00	148	No people	No people
21	01 Aug 2019 12:00	139	No people	No people
22	01 Aug 2019 18:00	139	No people	No people
23	02 Aug 2019 00:00	111	No people	No people
24	02 Aug 2019 06:00	102	No people	No people
25	02 Aug 2019 12:00	83	No people	No people
26	02 Aug 2019 18:00	74	No people	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	27 Jul 2019 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.3, -123
2	27 Jul 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.5, -124.6
3	28 Jul 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	11.8, -126.1
4	28 Jul 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12, -127.4
5	28 Jul 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.2, -129.1
6	28 Jul 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	12, -130.6
7	29 Jul 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	11.6, -132.4
8	29 Jul 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.7, -133.8
9	29 Jul 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	12.3, -136
10	29 Jul 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	12.5, -137.7
11	30 Jul 2019 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	12.6, -139.3
12	30 Jul 2019 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.9, -140.7
13	30 Jul 2019 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	13.2, -142.2
14	30 Jul 2019 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	13.4, -143.6
15	31 Jul 2019 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	13.8, -144.9
16	31 Jul 2019 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.1, -145.8
17	31 Jul 2019 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	14.2, -146.9
20	01 Aug 2019 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	15.3, -150.1
21	01 Aug 2019 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.7, -151.7
22	01 Aug 2019 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.9, -152.7
23	02 Aug 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.8, -154
24	02 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.2, -155.2
25	02 Aug 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16.6, -156.8
26	02 Aug 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16.5, -158.1
26	03 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	17.1, -160.2
26	03 Aug 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	17.9, -162.2
26	04 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.9, -164
26	04 Aug 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.8, -165.5
26	05 Aug 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	20.5, -167.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 31 Jul 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)