Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NEIL-19
in Tonga
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GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NEIL-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Tonga
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Feb 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tonga)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 65 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 65 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Wind

65 km/h Current

Up to 100000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 09 Feb 2019 18:00 65 110 thousand No people Tonga
Green 2 10 Feb 2019 00:00 65 110 thousand No people Tonga

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 09 Feb 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 5200 people no people -20.9, -174.9
GREEN
2 10 Feb 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 83000 people no people -22.6, -174.5
GREEN
2 10 Feb 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -26.9, -172.4
GREEN
2 11 Feb 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -32.2, -169.8
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Tonga

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Tonga Tonga 98000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Nuku'alofa Tonga Capital 24000 people 178 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Eua Kaufana EUA unknown 0 143 km
Fua'amotu International TBU 38 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 164 km
Haapai HPA 12 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3900 313 km
Vavau International VAV 72 Civ. Unpaved Yes 5500 448 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Eua Island Tonga 143 km
Ata Island Tonga 177 km
Nuku'alofa TOTBU Tonga 178 km
Pangai TOPAN Tonga 310 km
Neiafu TONEI Tonga 441 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ohonua, Tonga. This height is estimated for 09 Feb 2019 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 10 Feb 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Ohonua Tonga  0.3
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Kolonga Tonga  0.3
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Niutoua Tonga  0.3
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Fuaamotu Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Mua Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Fatumu Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Nukunuku Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Houma Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Pea Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Nuku'alofa Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Foui Tonga  0.2
09 Feb 2019 20:00 Pangai Tonga  0.1