Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (12 Oct 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.6
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 18.2, -124.2
GREEN
43 11 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.6, -121.9
GREEN
43 11 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 21.7, -119.3
GREEN
43 12 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 1.8 million people no people 24.1, -116.5
GREEN
43 13 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 4.5 million people no people 28.7, -110
GREEN
43 14 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 33, -101.8
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 13:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (46 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 43 of 10 Oct 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 21:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 13:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 21:30 Liliba Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Empalme Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 19:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 20:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 19:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 23:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 21:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 20:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2018 00:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 08:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2018 00:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1