Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (12 Oct 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

139 km/h Current

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
38 09 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.2, -128.1
GREEN
38 09 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.9, -127
GREEN
38 10 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 17.7, -125.4
GREEN
38 10 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 18.9, -123.2
GREEN
38 11 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 1.7 million people no people 22.9, -118
GREEN
38 12 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 5.4 million people no people 28, -111.5
GREEN
38 13 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 33.5, -102.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 38 of 08 Oct 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 20:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Empalme Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 18:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 10:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 19:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1