Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FLORENCE-18 in United States from 31 Aug 2018 21:00 UTC to 10 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC

10 Sep 2018 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FLORENCE-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	241 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	120	40 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	120	7 thousand	No people
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	111	No people	No people
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	102	No people	No people
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	102	No people	No people
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	93	No people	No people
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	120	No people	No people
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	148	No people	No people
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	167	No people	No people
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	167	No people	No people
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	204	No people	No people
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	194	No people	No people
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	194	No people	No people
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	204	No people	No people
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	213	No people	No people
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	231	No people	No people
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	231	No people	No people
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	231	410 thousand	No people	United States
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	231	2.7 million	160 thousand	United States
40	09 Sep 2018 09:00	222	4.3 million	340 thousand	United States
41	09 Sep 2018 15:00	222	6.5 million	600 thousand	United States
42	09 Sep 2018 21:00	222	5.9 million	990 thousand	United States
43	10 Sep 2018 03:00	241	5.7 million	990 thousand	United States
44	10 Sep 2018 09:00	231	7.4 million	1.3 million	United States
45	10 Sep 2018 15:00	231	8 million	2.1 million	United States
46	10 Sep 2018 21:00	222	6.5 million	2 million	United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -18.4
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -19.4
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.2, -20.9
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -21.4
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.7, -22.7
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.8, -24.7
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.2, -25.5
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -26.7
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.8, -27.8
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -29
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16, -30.2
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.5, -31.4
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17, -33.2
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.4, -34.6
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.9, -35.9
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	18, -37.5
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.3, -38.7
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.6, -39.8
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.9, -41
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.3, -42
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	19.7, -42.5
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	20.3, -43.2
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	20.7, -43.9
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	21.4, -44.8
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	22, -45.7
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	22.7, -46.6
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	23.4, -47.2
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24.1, -47.9
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24.6, -48.6
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	25, -49.6
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.1, -49.8
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25.1, -50.7
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25, -51.8
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.8, -52.5
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	24.8, -53.2
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.2
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.3
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -54.7
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -55.2
40	09 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.5, -55.8
41	09 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	24.4, -56.3
42	09 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	24.4, -57
43	10 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	24.6, -57.7
44	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24.9, -58.9
45	10 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	25, -60
46	10 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	25.4, -61.1
46	11 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	26, -63.2
46	11 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	27, -66.2
46	12 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	28.6, -69.3
46	12 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 4	241	no people	3.7 million people	30.4, -72.2	United States
46	13 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 4	222	2 million people	6.1 million people	33.7, -77	United States
46	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	4.5 million people	35.6, -78.8	United States
46	15 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	36.5, -79.5	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
United States

Provinces

Region Province	Country
North Carolina	United States

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Wilmington	North Carolina	United States	City	76000 people
Goldsboro	North Carolina	United States	City	39000 people
Raleigh	North Carolina	United States	Major city	280000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Bogue Field Mcalf		7	Mil.	Unpaved	No	4000
Triple M		9				0
Whitewood Forest		9				0
Epley		12				0
Deppe Landing Strip		14				0
Camp Davis Mcolf		18				0
Topsail Airpark		20				0
New River Mcas		8	Mil.	Paved	Yes	5100
Catino Ranch		15				0
Pilots Ridge		11				0
Brunswick Media Center		8				0
Brunswick County		7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
Sky Manor		18				0
New Hanover County	ILM	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8000
Albert J Ellis	OAJ	29	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7100
Stag Air Park		7				0
Winnabow		10				0
Brickhouse Fld		9				0
Hell And Purgatory		24				0
Flying W		35				0
Sandy Run Acres		18				0
Pettigrew Moore Aerodrome		9				0
Pink Hill		44				0
Henderson Field		12	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Moss Hill		9				0
Safe Field		15				0
Murphy Farms		24				0
Duplin General Hospital		38				0
Smith Farm		17				0
P B Raiford		41	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Yonder		11				0
Mitchell Field		7				0
Mt Olive Municipal		51				0
Seymour Johnson AFB	GSB	33	Mil.	Paved	Yes	11700
Wayne Memorial Hospital Inc.		32				0
Garland 'brinks'		38				0
Sampson Memorial Hospital		48				0
Elizabethtown		40				0
Sampson County	CTZ	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4200
Cox-Grantham Airfield		48				0
Scottbrook Farm		49				0
Twin Oak		38				0
Hinton Field		46				0
Massengill		58				0
Selma		52				0
Johnston County		50	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5500
Eastover Air Ranch		49				0
Betsy Johnson Memorial Hospital		63				0
Windemere		30				0
Sprint / Carolina Telephone		44				0
Fayetteville Vamc		58				0
Flyers Airpark		35				0
Harnett County		60	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3700
Simmons AAF	FBG	74	Mil.	Paved	Yes	4600
Fish Airpark		85				0
Bagwell		91				0
Nc Executive Downtown		104				0
Fuquay / Angier Field		106				0
Wake Medical Center		75				0
Triple W		74				0
Sky-5		122				0
William Irving Lewis		94				0
Western Wake Medical Center		136				0
Cox		139				0
Raleigh Durham International	RDU	133	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10000
Deck Airpark		103				0
Sanford-Lee County Regional		75	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Swansboro		Wake Island
Cape Fear	USCFN	Wake Island
Wrightsville	USXOG	Wake Island
Southport		Wake Island
Wilmington (n.cal)	USILM	Wake Island

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
B. Everett Jordan Lake	B. Everett Jordan Dam	Haw River	1974

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 46 of 10 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)