Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIA-18
in China, Japan

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000110-CHN
Exposed countries China, Japan
Exposed population 25.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (04 Jul 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 250 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

250 km/h Current

Up to 2000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 02 Jul 2018 18:00 176 160 thousand No people Guam
Green 2 03 Jul 2018 00:00 194 160 thousand No people Guam
Green 3 03 Jul 2018 06:00 185 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 4 03 Jul 2018 12:00 176 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 5 03 Jul 2018 18:00 176 200 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 6 04 Jul 2018 00:00 176 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 04 Jul 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand No people Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 8 04 Jul 2018 12:00 185 170 thousand No people Guam
Green 9 04 Jul 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 2 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 02 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 9.9, 146
GREEN
2 03 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 10.4, 145.8
GREEN
3 03 Jul 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.1, 148.5
GREEN
4 03 Jul 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.8, 147.3
GREEN
5 03 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.4, 146.5
GREEN
6 04 Jul 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 11.7, 146.3
GREEN
7 04 Jul 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 210000 people no people 12.4, 146.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 04 Jul 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 160000 people no people 12.6, 145.2 Guam
GREEN
9 04 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 210000 people <1000 people 13.6, 144.9 Guam
GREEN
9 05 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 210000 people no people 14.8, 144 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
9 05 Jul 2018 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 15.9, 143.1
GREEN
9 06 Jul 2018 06:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 16.9, 142.4
GREEN
9 06 Jul 2018 18:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 17.9, 141.8
GREEN
9 07 Jul 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 20.1, 139.9
GREEN
9 08 Jul 2018 18:00 Category 4 231 2000 people 2000 people 22.6, 136.6
GREEN
9 09 Jul 2018 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 25.1, 131.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Minami Daito MMD 4 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 1968 km
Kitadaito KTD 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4900 1970 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Okino Japan 1876 km
Kita Japan 1971 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Harmon Village, Guam. This height is estimated for 04 Jul 2018 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 04 Jul 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Upi Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Piti Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Asan Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Yona Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Agat Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 19:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Inarajan Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Umatac Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 17:00 Merizo Guam  0.2
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
04 Jul 2018 20:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1