Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BUD-18 in Mexico from 09 Jun 2018 21:00 UTC to 15 Jun 2018 18:00 UTC

15 Jun 2018 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BUD-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (15 Jun 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 510000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	25	15 Jun 2018 18:00	56	510 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	09 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.2, -101.4
2	10 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.6, -101.7
3	10 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.1, -102.3
4	10 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.4, -103.2
5	10 Jun 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	15.1, -103.8
6	11 Jun 2018 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.7, -104.6
7	11 Jun 2018 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	16.2, -105.7
8	11 Jun 2018 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	16.5, -106.6
9	11 Jun 2018 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	16.8, -107.2
10	12 Jun 2018 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	17.4, -107.3
11	12 Jun 2018 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	17.8, -107.9
12	12 Jun 2018 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	18.2, -108.3
13	12 Jun 2018 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	18.3, -108.4
14	13 Jun 2018 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	18.6, -108.5
15	13 Jun 2018 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	18.9, -108.7
16	13 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.2, -108.7
17	13 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	19.6, -108.8
18	14 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20.2, -109
19	14 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	230000 people	21.1, -109.3	Mexico
20	14 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	520000 people	21.4, -109.5	Mexico
21	14 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	520000 people	21.9, -109.7	Mexico
22	15 Jun 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	520000 people	22.7, -109.7	Mexico
23	15 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	280000 people	24, -109.8	Mexico
24	15 Jun 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	24.9, -110	Mexico
25	15 Jun 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	25.4, -110.2	Mexico
25	16 Jun 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	27.3, -110.1	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
La Paz		26				0
Leon	LAP	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Punta Pescadero		7				0
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Cabo San Lucas		139				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
La Paz		Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Las Bocas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Jun 2018 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (39 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 15 Jun 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 Jun 2018 23:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2018 00:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2018 01:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 02:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 19:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 08:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 03:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 03:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 01:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 06:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 08:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Jun 2018 02:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 03:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 09:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 05:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 17:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 17:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 01:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 02:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 12:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 14:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 08:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 12:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 08:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 02:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 03:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 03:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 05:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 04:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 10:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 10:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 02:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 02:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 02:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 12:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 16:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1