Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for KATIA-17 in Mexico from 05 Sep 2017 21:00 UTC to 09 Sep 2017 03:00 UTC

09 Sep 2017 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KATIA-17 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	520 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (09 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	120 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 900000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	05 Sep 2017 21:00	102	3 million	No people	Mexico
2	06 Sep 2017 03:00	111	6.5 million	No people	Mexico
3	06 Sep 2017 09:00	111	20.4 million	No people	Mexico
4	06 Sep 2017 15:00	120	2.1 million	No people	Mexico
5	06 Sep 2017 21:00	148	4.1 million	840 thousand	Mexico
6	07 Sep 2017 03:00	176	8.2 million	1.6 million	Mexico
7	07 Sep 2017 09:00	167	14.9 million	1.3 million	Mexico
8	07 Sep 2017 15:00	167	4 million	540 thousand	Mexico
9	07 Sep 2017 21:00	167	4.4 million	730 thousand	Mexico
10	08 Sep 2017 03:00	167	9.5 million	250 thousand	Mexico
11	08 Sep 2017 09:00	167	9.7 million	1.2 million	Mexico
12	08 Sep 2017 15:00	167	11.5 million	500 thousand	Mexico
13	08 Sep 2017 21:00	167	3.2 million	1.1 million	Mexico
14	09 Sep 2017 03:00	120	3.3 million	900 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	05 Sep 2017 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.4, -96.7
2	06 Sep 2017 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.2, -96.4
3	06 Sep 2017 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	22.1, -96.3
4	06 Sep 2017 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	21.7, -95.9
5	06 Sep 2017 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	21.7, -95.1
6	07 Sep 2017 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	21.7, -94.8
7	07 Sep 2017 09:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	21.5, -94.5
8	07 Sep 2017 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	21.6, -94.6
9	07 Sep 2017 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	21.6, -94.6
10	08 Sep 2017 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	21.5, -95.1
11	08 Sep 2017 09:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	21.3, -95.4
12	08 Sep 2017 15:00	Category 2	157	no people	290000 people	21, -95.8	Mexico
13	08 Sep 2017 21:00	Category 2	167	520000 people	2.7 million people	21, -96.5	Mexico
14	09 Sep 2017 03:00	Category 1	120	900000 people	3.3 million people	20.6, -97.2	Mexico
14	09 Sep 2017 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	20.2, -97.9	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Veracruz	Mexico
Puebla	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Papantla	Veracruz	Mexico	City	47000 people
Poza Rica	Veracruz	Mexico	City	170000 people
Xiocotepec de Juarez	Puebla	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Tajin	PAZ	138	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Tenango	Coacuila	1910
	Necaxa	Necaxa	1909

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Tenixtepec, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Sep 2017 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 09 Sep 2017 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Sep 2017 03:00	Tenixtepec	Mexico	0.6
	09 Sep 2017 02:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	0.5
	09 Sep 2017 02:00	Laja	Mexico	0.5
	09 Sep 2017 02:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	0.4
	09 Sep 2017 00:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	0.2
	09 Sep 2017 00:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	0.2
	09 Sep 2017 02:00	Agua Dulce	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2017 23:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2017 23:00	La Mata	Mexico	0.1
	09 Sep 2017 05:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	0.1
	09 Sep 2017 00:00	Nautla	Mexico	0.1
	09 Sep 2017 01:00	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.1
	06 Sep 2017 16:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.1