Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MEGH-15
Off-shore
10 Nov 2015 00 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MEGH-15 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 204 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (08 Nov 11:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 65 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 204 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      65 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 05 Nov 2015 06:00 111 --- No people Somalia, Yemen
        Green 2 05 Nov 2015 12:00 111 --- No people Somalia, Yemen
        Green 3 05 Nov 2015 18:00 148 --- 60 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 4 06 Nov 2015 00:00 148 --- 60 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 5 06 Nov 2015 06:00 148 --- 70 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 6 06 Nov 2015 12:00 139 --- 40 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 7 06 Nov 2015 18:00 120 --- 20 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 8 07 Nov 2015 00:00 139 --- 20 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Orange 9 07 Nov 2015 06:00 120 --- 250 thousand Yemen
        Orange 10 07 Nov 2015 12:00 120 --- 350 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Orange 11 07 Nov 2015 18:00 176 --- 100 thousand Yemen
        Orange 12 08 Nov 2015 00:00 194 --- 80 thousand Yemen
        Orange 13 08 Nov 2015 06:00 204 --- 150 thousand Yemen
        Green 14 08 Nov 2015 12:00 185 --- 80 thousand Yemen
        Green 15 08 Nov 2015 18:00 176 --- 50 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 16 09 Nov 2015 00:00 167 --- 50 thousand Yemen
        Orange 17 09 Nov 2015 06:00 120 --- 330 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 18 09 Nov 2015 12:00 139 --- 50 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 19 09 Nov 2015 18:00 102 --- 50 thousand Somalia, Yemen
        Green 20 10 Nov 2015 00:00 65 No people 50 thousand

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 05 Nov 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.1, 64.9
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Nov 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.9, 63.9
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Nov 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.7, 63.4
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Nov 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.4, 62.7
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Nov 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.1, 61.8
          GREEN
          		 6 06 Nov 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.9, 60.8
          GREEN
          		 7 06 Nov 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13, 60.9
          GREEN
          		 8 07 Nov 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.9, 60
          GREEN
          		 9 07 Nov 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 12.8, 59.2
          GREEN
          		 10 07 Nov 2015 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 12.7, 58.3
          GREEN
          		 11 07 Nov 2015 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 6400 people 12.8, 57.2 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 12 08 Nov 2015 00:00 Category 2 167 39000 people 57000 people 12.8, 56.1 Yemen
          ORANGE
          		 13 08 Nov 2015 06:00 Category 3 204 57000 people 57000 people 12.6, 54.9 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 14 08 Nov 2015 12:00 Category 3 185 6200 people 84000 people 12.8, 53.4 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 15 08 Nov 2015 18:00 Category 2 176 5000 people 71000 people 12.3, 52.3 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 16 09 Nov 2015 00:00 Category 2 167 no people 56000 people 12.3, 51.2 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 17 09 Nov 2015 06:00 Category 2 157 no people 1600 people 12.3, 49.6 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 18 09 Nov 2015 12:00 Category 1 139 no people 27000 people 12.4, 48 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 19 09 Nov 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 690000 people 12.8, 46.8 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 20 10 Nov 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2.4 million people 13, 45.1 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 20 10 Nov 2015 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 13.6, 44.5 Yemen
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Yemen Abyan
          Yemen Lahij
          Yemen Al Bayda'
          Yemen Ibb
          Yemen Aden
          Somalia Bari
          Yemen Ta'izz

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Kraytar Yemen City -
          'Adan Yemen Major city 540000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ghubbah, Yemen. This height is estimated for 08 Nov 2015 11:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (27 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 07 Nov 2015 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          08 Nov 2015 11:00 Ghubbah Yemen  0.3
          08 Nov 2015 11:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.3
          08 Nov 2015 12:00 Steroh Yemen  0.3
          08 Nov 2015 10:00 Qadub Yemen  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 12:00 Gishub Yemen  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 14:00 Nait Yemen  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 20:00 Kilmia Yemen  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 20:00 Kinshia Yemen  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 09:00 Mutra Yemen  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 10:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 13:00 Qulansiyah Yemen  0.2
          10 Nov 2015 06:00 Al Mabrak Yemen  0.2
          10 Nov 2015 06:00 Shaikh Ahmad Yemen  0.2
          10 Nov 2015 06:00 Al Hanad Yemen  0.2
          10 Nov 2015 18:00 Al 'Aws Yemen  0.2
          09 Nov 2015 02:00 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.2
          08 Nov 2015 10:00 Siqirah Yemen  0.1
          09 Nov 2015 02:00 Caluula Somalia  0.1
          09 Nov 2015 01:00 Bereeda Somalia  0.1
          10 Nov 2015 05:00 Hisn Bal'id Yemen  0.1
          10 Nov 2015 12:00 Bi'r Qa'ati Yemen  0.1
          10 Nov 2015 11:00 Muqaibirah Yemen  0.1
          09 Nov 2015 03:00 Bandar Murcaayo Somalia  0.1
          09 Nov 2015 03:00 Geesaley Somalia  0.1
          09 Nov 2015 01:00 Boho Somalia  0.1
          10 Nov 2015 02:00 Al Irqah Yemen  0.1
          10 Nov 2015 01:00 Al Hawrah Yemen  0.1