Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for PATRICIA-15 Off-shore from 20 Oct 2015 15:00 UTC to 24 Oct 2015 21:00 UTC

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PATRICIA-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	410 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	333 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	333 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 29.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 Oct 2015 15:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
2	20 Oct 2015 21:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
3	21 Oct 2015 03:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
4	21 Oct 2015 09:00	157	No people	1.4 million	Mexico
5	21 Oct 2015 15:00	148	No people	970 thousand	Mexico
6	21 Oct 2015 21:00	157	No people	280 thousand	Mexico
7	22 Oct 2015 03:00	185	No people	300 thousand	Mexico
8	22 Oct 2015 09:00	204	No people	490 thousand	Mexico
9	22 Oct 2015 15:00	213	No people	600 thousand	Mexico
10	22 Oct 2015 18:00	222	No people	580 thousand	Mexico
11	22 Oct 2015 21:00	241	No people	600 thousand	Mexico
12	23 Oct 2015 03:00	231	No people	290 thousand	Mexico
13	23 Oct 2015 05:30	296	No people	280 thousand	Mexico
14	23 Oct 2015 09:00	333	No people	180 thousand	Mexico
15	23 Oct 2015 15:00	241	No people	250 thousand	Mexico
16	23 Oct 2015 21:00	306	No people	770 thousand	Mexico
17	24 Oct 2015 03:00	213	No people	790 thousand	Mexico
18	24 Oct 2015 09:00	120	No people	1.3 million	Mexico
19	24 Oct 2015 15:00	56	No people	1.3 million	Mexico
20	24 Oct 2015 21:00	46	No people	1.3 million

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	20 Oct 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.3, -94.4
2	20 Oct 2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.2, -94.8
3	21 Oct 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.1, -95.3
4	21 Oct 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13, -96
5	21 Oct 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.9, -97.5
6	21 Oct 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	13.1, -99.5
7	22 Oct 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.5, -100.5
8	22 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.3, -102.3
9	22 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	14.9, -103.8
10	22 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	15, -104
11	22 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	15.4, -104.6
12	23 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 5	259	no people	410000 people	16.2, -105.1	Mexico
13	23 Oct 2015 05:30	Category 5	296	no people	230000 people	16.5, -105.3	Mexico
14	23 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 5	324	no people	1.6 million people	17, -105.5	Mexico
15	23 Oct 2015 15:00	Category 5	324	50000 people	7.3 million people	17.6, -105.5	Mexico
16	23 Oct 2015 21:00	Category 5	306	410000 people	8.9 million people	18.9, -105.2	Mexico
17	24 Oct 2015 03:00	Category 4	213	650000 people	10.7 million people	20.2, -104.6	Mexico
18	24 Oct 2015 09:00	Category 1	120	560000 people	29.1 million people	22.3, -103.1	Mexico
19	24 Oct 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	23.9, -101.6	Mexico
20	24 Oct 2015 21:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	25.3, -100.6	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Sinaloa
Mexico	Queretaro
Mexico	Coahuila
Mexico	Jalisco
Mexico	San Luis Potosi
Mexico	Zacatecas
Mexico	Nayarit
Mexico	Colima
Mexico	Durango
Mexico	Hidalgo
Mexico	Michoacan
Mexico	Guerrero
Mexico	Nuevo Leon
Mexico	Tamaulipas
Mexico	Mexico
Mexico	Aguascalientes
Mexico	Guanajuato

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Jiquilpan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	26000 people
Coalcomán	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	10000 people
Silao	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	65000 people
San Martín de Bolaños	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Cerritos	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	City	13000 people
Yurécuaro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	20000 people
Villa Unión	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	13000 people
Santa María del Río	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	City	12000 people
Tepatitlan	Jalisco	Mexico	City	76000 people
Arandas	Jalisco	Mexico	City	43000 people
La Barca	Jalisco	Mexico	City	34000 people
Tepic	Nayarit	Mexico	Major city	280000 people
Cedral	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	City	9400 people
Apasfo El Grande	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	-
Rioverde	San Luis Potosi	Mexico	City	47000 people
San Pedro	Coahuila de Zaragoza	Mexico	City	-
Tecuala	Nayarit	Mexico	City	15000 people
Moroleón	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	40000 people
San Juan Del Rio	Hidalgo	Mexico	City	110000 people
Juan Aldama	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	14000 people
El Oro	México	Mexico	City	6700 people
Compostela	Nayarit	Mexico	City	16000 people
Zitácuaro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	76000 people
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Querétaro	Querétaro de Arteaga	Mexico	Major city	560000 people
Zacatecas	Zacatecas	Mexico	Major city	120000 people
Juventino Rosas	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	38000 people
Acámbaro	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	55000 people
Polotitlan	México	Mexico	City	-
Tamazula de Gordiano	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Morelia	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	Major city	590000 people
Juchipla	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	-
Valle de Santiago	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	60000 people
Cárdenas	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	City	15000 people
León	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	900000 people
Matamoros	Coahuila de Zaragoza	Mexico	City	46000 people
Saltillo	Coahuila de Zaragoza	Mexico	Major city	620000 people
Salinas de Hidalgo	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	City	-
Armería	Colima	Mexico	City	16000 people
Ocotlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	78000 people
Ixtlán del Río	Nayarit	Mexico	City	21000 people
Fresnillo	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	110000 people
Cortazar	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	55000 people
Gómez Palacio	Durango	Mexico	City	210000 people
Ario de Rosales	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	-
Colotlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	12000 people
San Miguel de Allende	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	-
San Luis Potosí	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	Major city	650000 people
Chapala	Jalisco	Mexico	City	20000 people
Escuinapa	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	28000 people
Encarnación de Díaz	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Zacoalco de Torres	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Etzatlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	13000 people
Mazatlan	Sinaloa	Mexico	Major city	330000 people
Sayula	Jalisco	Mexico	City	25000 people
Tuxpan	Nayarit	Mexico	City	23000 people
Puruándiro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	28000 people
Ahulalulco de Mercado	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Autlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	40000 people
Teocaltiche	Jalisco	Mexico	City	22000 people
Yahualica	Jalisco	Mexico	City	15000 people
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people
Durango	Durango	Mexico	Major city	450000 people
Salamanca	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	140000 people
Degollado	Jalisco	Mexico	City	11000 people
Torreón	Coahuila de Zaragoza	Mexico	City	600000 people
Apatzingan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	94000 people
Colima	Colima	Mexico	Major city	130000 people
Atoyac	Jalisco	Mexico	City	5300 people
San Luis de la Paz	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	47000 people
Pátzcuaro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	48000 people
Guanajuato	Guanajuato	Mexico	Major city	77000 people
Tierra Blanca	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	-
Sombrerete	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	19000 people
Atotonilco el Alto	Jalisco	Mexico	City	27000 people
Tula	Tamaulipas	Mexico	City	8900 people
Uruapan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	240000 people
La Piedad	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	69000 people
San Francisco del Rincón	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	65000 people
Valparaíso	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	10000 people
Ville de Reyes	San Luis Potosi	Mexico	City	-
Amatitán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	9400 people
Tarimoro	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	13000 people
Ciudad del Maíz	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	City	8100 people
Ciudad Valles	San Luis Potosí	Mexico	City	110000 people
Zamora	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	120000 people
Talpa de Allende	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Parras	Coahuila de Zaragoza	Mexico	City	32000 people
Ojo Caliente	Zacatecas	Mexico	City	18000 people
Tecomán	Colima	Mexico	City	75000 people
Cotija	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	14000 people
Santiago Ixcuintla	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Irapuato	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	340000 people
Sauhayo	Michoacan de Ocampo	Mexico	City	-
Ciudad Guzmán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Lagos de Moreno	Jalisco	Mexico	City	84000 people
Aguascalientes	Aguascalientes	Mexico	Major city	650000 people
Acaponeta	Nayarit	Mexico	City	18000 people
Ameca	Jalisco	Mexico	City	35000 people
Ciudad Manuel Doblado	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2015 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 24 Oct 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Oct 2015 23:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	1.0
	24 Oct 2015 00:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.4
	24 Oct 2015 00:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.3
	24 Oct 2015 00:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.3
	21 Oct 2015 15:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2015 23:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.2
	21 Oct 2015 15:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.2
	24 Oct 2015 00:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2015 05:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2015 00:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2015 01:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2015 23:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2015 04:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2015 16:00	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2015 05:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2015 06:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1