Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOS-15 in Mexico from 11 Jun 2015 15:00 UTC to 17 Jun 2015 21:00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOS-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (17 Jun 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	47 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

TOP

Wind

47 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Jun 2015 21:00	138	1.8 million	No people	Mexico
2	11 Jun 2015 03:00	148	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
3	11 Jun 2015 09:00	148	2 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	11 Jun 2015 15:00	138	No people	No people
5	11 Jun 2015 21:00	148	3 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	12 Jun 2015 03:00	138	50 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	12 Jun 2015 09:00	138	5 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	12 Jun 2015 15:00	130	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	12 Jun 2015 21:00	130	450 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	13 Jun 2015 03:00	130	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
11	13 Jun 2015 09:00	121	950 thousand	No people	Mexico
12	13 Jun 2015 15:00	138	720 thousand	No people	Mexico
13	13 Jun 2015 21:00	167	2.6 million	430 thousand	Mexico
14	14 Jun 2015 03:00	167	3.3 million	640 thousand	Mexico
15	14 Jun 2015 09:00	148	4.4 million	720 thousand	Mexico
16	14 Jun 2015 15:00	138	4.1 million	250 thousand	Mexico
17	14 Jun 2015 21:00	138	3.7 million	60 thousand	Mexico
18	15 Jun 2015 03:00	121	2.1 million	No people	Mexico
19	15 Jun 2015 09:00	121	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
20	15 Jun 2015 15:00	121	1.3 million	No people	Mexico
21	15 Jun 2015 21:00	121	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
22	16 Jun 2015 03:00	121	1 million	No people
23	16 Jun 2015 09:00	121	1 million	No people
24	16 Jun 2015 15:00	121	1 million	No people
25	16 Jun 2015 21:00	148	1 million	No people
26	17 Jun 2015 03:00	121	1 million	No people	Mexico
27	17 Jun 2015 09:00	101	1.3 million	No people	Mexico
28	17 Jun 2015 15:00	74	1.3 million	No people	Mexico
29	17 Jun 2015 21:00	47	1.3 million	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.4, -98.7
2	11/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.9, -99.7
3	11/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.1, -100.2
4	11/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	13.6, -100.4
5	11/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	14.1, -100.3
6	12/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.5, -100.4
7	12/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.8
8	12/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.7
9	12/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.6
10	13/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.8, -100.1
11	13/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	101	no people	no people	14.8, -100.2
12	13/Jun/2015 15:00	Category 1	121	no people	no people	14.9, -100.2
13	13/Jun/2015 21:00	Category 1	138	no people	24000 people	15.2, -100	Mexico
14	14/Jun/2015 03:00	Category 1	138	no people	900000 people	15.5, -100.1	Mexico
15	14/Jun/2015 09:00	Category 1	130	no people	900000 people	15.8, -100.3	Mexico
16	14/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	180000 people	15.9, -100.4	Mexico
17	14/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	170000 people	16.4, -100.9	Mexico
18	15/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	3600 people	16.7, -101.3	Mexico
19	15/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.7, -101.8
20	15/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17, -102.5
21	15/Jun/2015 21:00	Category 1	121	no people	no people	17, -103
22	16/Jun/2015 03:00	Category 1	121	no people	no people	17.2, -103.5
23	16/Jun/2015 09:00	Category 1	121	no people	no people	17.4, -103.9
24	16/Jun/2015 15:00	Category 1	121	no people	no people	17.5, -104.3
25	16/Jun/2015 21:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	17.8, -104.4
26	17/Jun/2015 03:00	Category 1	121	no people	220000 people	18.2, -104.5	Mexico
27	17/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	101	no people	260000 people	19, -104.8	Mexico
28	17/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	64000 people	19.6, -105.3	Mexico
29	17/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical depression	47	no people	no people	20.2, -105.6	Mexico
29	18/Jun/2015 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	20.7, -106	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Colima
Mexico	Jalisco
Mexico	Guerrero

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Acapulco	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	640000 people
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Tecpan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	14000 people
Atoyac	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

TOP

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Jun 2015 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 28 of 17 Jun 2015 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Jun 2015 12:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2015 08:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2015 11:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 16:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 08:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 14:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 09:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 10:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 23:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	18 Jun 2015 00:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Jun 2015 01:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1