Red alert for wind impact in Madagascar

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a high humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

Current storm status

This report is for advisory number 25 of tropical cyclone GIOVANNA-12 issued at 2/21/2012 12:00:00 AM (GDACS Event ID 28199, Latest episode ID: 25).

Current impact estimate:

• Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.6million
• Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 231 km/h)
• Vulnerability of affected countries: High

Impact of Extreme Wind

Affected population

Up to 640000 people people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition, 22000 people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected country

Country	Region/Province	Population
Madagascar	Toamasina	1.8 million people

Affected provinces

Country	Region/Province	Population
Madagascar	Toamasina	1.8 million people

Affected cities

Name	Region/Province	Country	City class	Population
Moramanga	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	28000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Nearby and affected airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800

Major ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Andevoranto		Madagascar

Event time line

The storm evolution is shown in the table below. Alert levels and population estimates are related to the area from a point to the next.

Advisory	Alert color	Date (UTC)	Category	Wind speed	Wind gusts	Population affected by cyclone winds (>120km/h)	Location (lon, lat)
1		2/9/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64 km/h (40 mph)	84 km/h (52 mph)	no people	65.1, -14.1
2		2/10/2012	Tropical storm	93 km/h (58 mph)	121 km/h (75 mph)	no people	63.8, -14.7
3		2/10/2012 12:00:00 PM	Category 1	121 km/h (75 mph)	148 km/h (92 mph)	no people	61.6, -15.6
4		2/10/2012 6:00:00 PM	Category 3	204 km/h (127 mph)	249 km/h (155 mph)	no people	61, -16
5		2/11/2012	Category 4	222 km/h (138 mph)	269 km/h (166 mph)	no people	60.1, -16.7
6		2/11/2012 12:00:00 PM	Category 3	195 km/h (121 mph)	241 km/h (150 mph)	no people	59, -17.2
7		2/12/2012	Category 3	185 km/h (115 mph)	232 km/h (144 mph)	no people	57.9, -17.5
8		2/12/2012 12:00:00 PM	Category 3	185 km/h (115 mph)	232 km/h (144 mph)	no people	56.6, -17.7
9		2/13/2012	Category 4	232 km/h (144 mph)	278 km/h (172 mph)	no people	54.1, -18.2
10		2/13/2012 12:00:00 PM	Category 4	232 km/h (144 mph)	278 km/h (172 mph)	1.2 million people	51.5, -18.7
11		2/14/2012	Category 2	175 km/h (109 mph)	212 km/h (132 mph)	6.5 million people	48.7, -19.1
12		2/14/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64 km/h (40 mph)	84 km/h (52 mph)	450000 people	45.3, -19.3
13		2/15/2012	Tropical storm	74 km/h (46 mph)	93 km/h (58 mph)	no people	42.9, -20.5
13		2/15/2012 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84 km/h (52 mph)	101 km/h (63 mph)	no people	41.1, -21.8
13		2/16/2012	Tropical storm	101 km/h (63 mph)	130 km/h (81 mph)	no people	39.9, -22.6
13		2/16/2012 12:00:00 PM	Category 1	121 km/h (75 mph)	148 km/h (92 mph)	no people	39, -23.1
13		2/17/2012	Category 1	130 km/h (81 mph)	158 km/h (98 mph)	no people	37.8, -23.6
13		2/18/2012	Category 1	148 km/h (92 mph)	185 km/h (115 mph)	no people	36.6, -24.1
13		2/19/2012	Category 1	130 km/h (81 mph)	158 km/h (98 mph)	no people	36.1, -24.7
13		2/20/2012	Tropical storm	111 km/h (69 mph)	138 km/h (86 mph)	no people	36.7, -25.4

Previous advisories

For accessing reports of previous advisories, please click on the advisory number in the table below.

More information

Data resources

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.

About the data

The information on storm characteristics is taken from a web service provided by the Pacific Disaster Center, which processes the official advisory bulletins.

JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and 74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4 quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge using HyFlux2 (hydrodynamic software).

Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database (nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996), Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).

Population data is from LandScan 2010.

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.