The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the
regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected
by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the
forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.
This report is for advisory number 15 of tropical cyclone HILWA-12 issued at 20 Feb 2012 18:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 28282).
Current impact estimate:
- Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
- Saffir-Simpson Category: Tropical storm
- Maximum sustained wind speed: 93 km/h
The maximum Storm surge height is
in La Ferme, Mauritius. This
height is estimated for 21 Feb 2012 06:00:00.
Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Show forecast grid
View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC
|21 Feb 2012 06:00:00
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 2)
|21 Feb 2012 09:00:00
Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 20 Feb 2012 18:00:00.
(Simulation using 2 minute resolution)
See full locations list (RSS)
The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction.
The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.
The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.
For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.