The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the
regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected
by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the
forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.
This report is for advisory number 8 of tropical cyclone GIOVANNA-12 issued at 12 Feb 2012 12:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 28199).
Current impact estimate:
- Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 640 thousand
- Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
- Maximum sustained wind speed: 232 km/h
The maximum Storm surge height is
in Ampanotoamaizina, Madagascar. This
height is estimated for 14 Feb 2012 00:00:00.
Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Show forecast grid
View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC
See full locations list (RSS)
The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction.
The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.
The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.
For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.